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DSW operating profit margin fell from 10.2% in 2013 to 8.1% in 2015 due to higher Costs of Sales. Morgan Stanley's bear case assumes this margin decline will continue through 2020. I do not have a strong view here; there are a lot of factors at play that could impact margins. I will make two points. First, over the last 15 years, DSW margins have been quite volatile, ranging from ~1% in recession years of 2001 & 2009 up to over 10% in recent years. I see no reason why margins would necessarily be structurally lower in the future. Second, DSW pays a very active high tax rate of 38-39%. As David Einhorn recently noted in Greenlight Capital's investor memo, profitable companies with high tax rates like DSW are best positioned to potentially benefit from any reduction in corporate tax sought by the Trump administration. This could be a significant positive benefit for DSW's bottom-line. Bull case In the analysis of the bear case above, I have made an argument that DSW still has growth opportunities in its core business of large-format stores.
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